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Article / Post Pages . by Author "Everything depends on the Americans. If they want to make war for 20 years then we shall make war for 20 years. If they want to make peace, we shall make peace and invite them to tea afterwards." Ho Chi Minh, 1966  How cliché to compare the Afghanistan war with that of Vietnam, yet the parallelism grows and the current administration’s inability to learn from history could spell quagmire. Insurgencies and guerilla wars have never been won via conventional means by foreign powers invading from without, but, rather, by local forces from within. The coalition forces must work with Afghanistan to win the hearts and minds of the masses, further develop indigenous forces to do the brunt of the fighting, and concurrently provide sustenance, law and basic human rights, or we will be there for another twenty years – at a minimum. It is obvious that President Barack Obama’s political future rests mainly on the effectiveness of the largest spending bill in our nation’s history that was signed last week, however, if conditions don’t improve dramatically in Afghanistan and the borderlands it shares with Pakistan, one wonders if an Iraq-type quagmire might relegate Mr. Obama to a one-termer for posterity. For the conditions are ever worsening, and simply throwing troops at the problem will not be the ultimate solution, as General McKiernan has pointed out along with Obama himself. Something tells me, rightly or wrongly, Obama’s prints will be all over the final outcome of this conflict, and, on the upside he has the opportunity to be Afghanistan’s Truman or Marshall, and on the downside – he could be their LBJ. How bad is it? The World Bank rated Afghanistan as one of the most unstable countries in the world. Afghanistan civilian deaths have risen by 40% in 2008 to 2,118 according to a UN survey – the highest since the Taliban was ousted in 2001, with martyrdom operations at an all-time high. A recent RAND Corporation report has revealed disturbing stats including the fact that the average life expectancy of both male and females is now down to 44 years of age. 50% of Afghans fear for their personal safety and 2/3rds are afraid to travel due to violence and kidnappings. This increasing violence has made relief itself even more challenging with an upward tick in attacks on World Food Program workers. Another RAND report also pointed out that al Qaeda is back to pre-9/11 strength. Now turning around a Third World country whose staple crop is opium, that is violently unstable and economically decimated after thirty consecutive years of war since the Soviet Invasion of 1979, is not going to happen over night. It couldn’t be more complex, as we need to address the following hierarchy of needs: (1) physical security, (2) rule of law and governance, (3) a minimum level of economic security and improved quality of life (food, shelter, education, clothing and technology) and (4) a legitimate political framework. Without security - law and order is not possible; and without rule of law - economic security and political solvency are unachievable. The challenge is that the solution is not linear – although prioritized, it must also be implemented concurrently because of the interdependence of all four elements. Advances in one area will be lost if we are not overlapping and moving forward in the subsequent category. We must first identify the culprits responsible for exacerbating insecurity and violence since 2001, after the shoddy implementation of the Bonn Accord which left the country in the hands of warlords. And though the culprits be many, one could point to the main malefactors as a weak central Afghani government and an unskilled national police force, the combination of which has utterly failed to protect the population. This inability to govern and police has enabled the more obvious miscreants to flourish, including warlords, opium and heroine drug czars, criminals and insurgent groups such as the Taliban, Haqqani, Hezb-i-Islam, and al Qaeda. Not to mention the Pakistani government and their Inter-Services Intelligence agency that has corroborated with aforementioned rogue non-state actors to disrupt Afghanistan’s progress. Eventually, such circumstances shall provide these cadres with required psychological and emotional sanctions to bend public opinion – which could signal the beginning of the end. As French scholar and soldier Roger Trinquier stated about fighting a guerilla insurgency: “the sine qua non of victory in modern warfare is the unconditional support of a population.”  And the reality is that America is the Leviathan – it is our job to protect the world as the world buys our bonds to bolster our economy – thus, we must accept the fact that we drive the strategy here. Yet, public opinion is already bending because coalition missteps have not helped win the battle of hearts and minds. Conventional airstrikes that kill civilians have not been the answer as indicated by recent polls that illustrate U.S. popularity plummeting, placing the U.S. dangerously close to the precipice of once again being perceived as occupiers, not liberators. In order to implement security, we must continue unmanned drone attacks and special operations on the Afghani/Paki border to cut off the head of the terrorist beast. Another Iraqi-like “surge” will need to be employed in order to protect citizens so that there is a minimum level of security and law. But, the surge cannot be executed in a silo – along with it must be enhancements on the economic and political fronts – or these military advances will be temporal in nature. The U.S. and coalition forces must Afghanistanize the war, with more adequate counterinsurgency training for the Afghan police and security forces, while transitioning more and more power and accountability locally. The most effective use of U.S. power in providing security is how it handles the Pakistan problem, by using every diplomatic weapon in its arsenal to limit the Paki influence in the region, which will include direct negotiations, sanctions, diplomatic isolation, deterrence, and the worst case scenario being direct military action. At some point, the U.S. may need another “stimulus package” to revive the Afghan economy and make long term investments in education and technology, which may sound preposterous with the rising deficit, but what choices do we really have? The end result cannot be an Afghanistan that remains one of the “disconnected” from the global grid, as Thomas Barnett puts it in his book The Pentagon’s New Map, because these disconnected countries, per Barnett, are the world’s global terrorist incubators. In order to deliver the freedom from want that Obama so proselytizes, we need to also get creative. Christopher Hitchens suggested a reforestation project to transform poppy fields into vine fields to build a primary staple that is more easily exportable – legally – and a crop that would not be reliant upon distribution and consumption by criminals and drug lords. Ultimately, without employment and prosperity, the forces that have kept this country in the dark ages will return. Finally, after we secure the country, protect them and feed them, the political solution must be put in place. The first three elements will reduce fear and instill hope providing some sense of ease for Afghanis so they can go to the ballot box, incentivizing them to vote against islamofascist candidates. If we do not secure the country while improving on the non-military fronts, we will get caught up in a body count mentality à la Vietnam. Transforming the hearts and minds of Afghanis and getting them to come to a Platonic conclusion that a western style democracy is the ideal regime, will take time. A secularized American style democracy will likely never happen, but the faintest facsimile thereof will be a monumental improvement from the current state of affairs. Most importantly, we must provide breathing room for the population to realize a life based on democratic principles is superior to a life based on Sharia law. Less this, the United States will not come close to seeing a victory on the battlefield or a victory for democracy. And back in the old U.S. of A., Mr. Obama will likely fail to see a second term.  image by Sam Dean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligenceshapeimage_17_link_0shapeimage_17_link_1
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